TAKING A GAMBLE

I'm going to stick my neck out now and make a prediction -- I think Kenya's coalition government will collapse in the next six months. I definitely cannot see it lasting until 2012. Of course, that does not mean there have to be fresh elections. I imagine President Mwai Kibaki could call on the constitution and form a new cabinet. But this team seems to be well past its sell-by-date. (Of course, I could be wrong -- I have been in the past, most notably about the creation of the euro. I just couldn't see that working....!)
The freshest reason for my pessimism: today, Justice Minister Martha Karua resigned -- the first minister to quit the Grand Coalition. She says she was frustrated by colleagues who opposed reforms, and that she is now going to concentrate on nation-building and her 2012 presidential bid. The last straw seems to have been the naming of new judges last week without her approval or knowledge, but she had already fallen out with Kibaki, her one-time backer.
Karua, Kenya's so-called Iron Lady, was credited -- although that seems the wrong word -- with helping orchestrate Kibaki's internationally-criticised victory in the 2007 polls. She has been outspoken about corruption in recent weeks, fingering colleagues and mounting a sustained campaign against the Chief Justice. She has also never made a secret of her 2012 ambitions. Does this clever, charismatic if controversial politician feel that there is absolutely no upside to remaining with the current team because it has lost all legitimacy and standing in the eyes of the Kenyan voters? Has she seen the writing on the wall for the coalition and decided to jump ship to be free of the acrimony and mutual recriminations that are sure to follow a political collapse? Did Kibaki force her out? Whatever the real reasons, her departure is another blow to an administration that has failed on so many levels.
Karua's resignation followed a frankly farcical weekend retreat that was billed as a chance for the coalition partners to overcome their differences. They went to the Tsavo national park, but they couldn't even agree on the meeting's agenda, or indeed the sleeping arrangements. Cue sulks, walkouts, denials of walkouts, two contradictory press conferences and a full-page ad in the Daily Nation today from the PNU saying it wanted to discuss reforms but the ODM wanted power-sharing issues on the table.
"The PNU is opposed to power games at a time when the country requires a concerted effort to improve the lives of wananchi, including the resettlement of IDPs." An effort to take the high moral ground, but you have to wonder about the veracity of the first part of the sentence -- the second half is pretty spot on.
I wonder if the straw that breaks the coalition camel's back will be the question of setting up a special tribunal to judge those deemed to be responsible for the post-election bloodshed? The International Criminal Court has said when and if it steps in, it will act relentlessly and immediately ie when Kenya has shown that it cannot or will not set up a local tribunal to try the suspects. Kofi Annan still has that sealed list of suspects compiled by an independent commission and has said he will hand it over to the ICC if parliament fails to act quickly to set up a local court. He wants action by summer. Parliament is back from recess at the end of April, so things could get interesting then.
Meanwhile, the question is who is Karua going to team up with now that she has burnt bridges with her former boss? Odinga? He has spoken out in her defence today, using the opportunity to attack Kibaki as well. Her departure from government will surely have some impact on the politics of ethnicity that seems to dominate so much of public life here.