THE STRAW AND THE CAMEL?

It seems Raila Odinga has finally had enough. Maybe. This weekend, Kenya's prime minister said that if the row over who is appointed government business leader in parliament is not resolved -- ie if he doesn't get the job over President Mwai Kibaki's nominee Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka -- then elections should be called. Odinga was quoted by the BBC as telling constituents in Lang'ata: "We have been pushed around enough. We have reached this point and we cannot retreat. We shall stand firm. If others do not want this then let us go back and hold elections."
But Kibaki has apparently told the speaker of parliament that there is no need for any further talks on the dispute as he has already appointed Musyoka. And members of his PNU party have accused Odinga's ODM -- their coalition partners -- of fomenting a coup.
The speaker is due to rule on the appointment on Tuesday but whatever he says, someone is going away unhappy. It's hard to see how the two sides can work together in any productive way now. Like a married couple who have had a late-night row where hasty, harsh words were traded, one wonders if too much has been said for any reconciliation to be possible. Or at least any reconciliation that goes beyond appearances and allows the government to effectively function.
Beyond the risk of violence surrounding a breakdown in the coalition or possible early elections, Kenya will suffer enormously if the government is unable to do anything other than strive to survive until the next scheduled elections in 2012. The myriad economic and social problems facing the country -- as a result of the global economic crisis, the drought, rising criminality and dangerous neighbours -- demand responses.
One example: Somalia's militant Islamist rebel group, al Shabaab, have apparently said they will invade Kenya's North Eastern province and install sharia law. This is not the first time Kenya, which is home to hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees, has been threatened by al Shabaab -- and who knows how serious they are -- but it is another problem for a government fast losing its raison d'etre.