HOW MANY CRISES IN A COALITION?

Kenya's parliamentarians are back in the house, but the Easter break does not seem to have soothed spirits much. Already, the business of running the country has come to a standstill -- yet again because of a row over power-sharing. This time, the dispute is over who should lead government business in parliament and chair the House Business Committee, which sets the agenda. So far, so predictable, but coming after weeks of increasingly vicious sparring between the coalition partners and with a rise in international calls for more action on corruption and good governance (or some kind of governance, at least), one wonders how many more crises this coalition has in it?
President Mwai Kibaki has nominated Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka as leader of government business. Traditionally, this post has always gone to the Vice-President but this coalition government has a Prime Minister -- Raila Odinga -- and he has nominated himself.
The problem is that parliament cannot debate or pass laws until this job is filled.
On Thursday, a Cabinet meeting was cancelled -- the third cancellation in as many weeks. The House Speaker has asked for a meeting with Kibaki and Odinga to resolve the issue. The stakes may be high. The Daily Nation newspaper said that if parliament votes against the nominee for the job of government business leader, then the Business Committee cannot be formed for another six months -- effectively freezing government business. But the constitution says that if parliament does not sit for three consecutive months, it stands dissolved, which, the paper said, "would create a catastrophic constitutional crisis because there is no electoral commission to conduct an election."
Even some MPs seem to be running out of patience. I loved the suggestion from Trade Minister Amos Kimunya that parliamentarians were committing fraud by earning so-called sitting allowances without transacting business. He has offered to forgo his perks for the past three days. Agriculture Minister William Ruto tried to pass a motion that would have seen each MP lose 20,000 shillings in allowances for the four sessions since Tuesday. Laudable gestures perhaps, whatever your opinion of the individual MPs, but Kenya may need something even more dramatic now.
Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was among MPs who said there should be fresh elections if the sparring between the coalition partners continues. But there is no electoral commission in place, so how to square that circle? Kenyatta also said that the government would not be able to get approval to spend supplementary funds because of the delays in establishing the House Business Committee. His finance ministry wants parliament to approve extra spending of 9.91 billion shillings for the 08/09 budget.
International concern is growing. Human Rights Watch has said it is alarmed about the number of governments in East Africa and the Horn that are using repressive tactics to stay in power and silence their opponents. On Kenya, one of HRW's researchers Chris Albin-Lackey is quoted as saying: "Kenya is so hobbled by corruption and by the quality of governance that the threat of poverty and ethnic violence boiling over again into something like what we saw after the elections is becoming more and more real."
And the US has urged the government to get reforms on track urgently. The Standard quotes American Ambassador Michael Ranneberger as saying the Obama administration has contacted the Kenyan government to criticise the slow pace of reforms and culture of impunity. Obama has said Kenya must tackle corruption if it wants to justify help from the US and other donors.
And finally this is interesting, if a little leftfield. It's perhaps unlikely, but just imagine if Kibaki were contemplating a third term? Constitutional limits are easily sidestepped -- just ask Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore, Gabon's Omar Bongo, Cameroon's Paul Biya, or Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. Something to think about.