Wednesday 30 September 2009

MAKING KENYA AN EXAMPLE

It's been a bad couple of weeks for Kenya's governing elite. Scorned by an angry public over the president's reappointment of an unpopular anti-graft commissioner, berated by the United States for promised but paralysed reforms, threatened with travel bans, and now in the sights of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Today, the prosecutor of the ICC, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, reiterated his determination to pursue those deemed most responsible for fanning and financing last year's post-election violence.
Moreno-Ocampo said: "Kenya will be a world example on managing violence". He plans a three-pronged approach: he wants the ICC to try those suspected of bearing the most responsibility for the violence; he wants a local tribunal to try others and wants the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission to look at past examples of impunity. As a first step, the prosecutor plans to meet with President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the coming weeks. He already has a list of prime suspects, believed to include some cabinet ministers.
"There is no question, there is no doubt, that the next stage is the indictment of the suspects. Moreno-Ocampo has now finally set the record straight," Gitobu Imanyara, a Kenyan parliamentarian who is sponsoring a second bill to establish a local court, told Reuters.
Some argue that if those who organised and funded the violence are tried internationally, this could mean that elections due in 2012 could be more peaceful: political leaders used to playing the ethnic card to encourage followers to intimidate or beat up opponents may think twice if others have been prosecuted. But indictments could also split, and possibly destroy, the fractious coalition. And any prosecutions could increase tensions between the different ethnicities here, and that could make for dangerous polls. Although there is some evidence that economics may be playing a larger role in political preferences as financial hardship bites especially among the urban poor, I am not sure economics will trump ethnic affiliations at the ballot box just yet. A worrying sign might be the fact that efforts to resettle those still living in camps after being driven from their homes during the violence more than a year ago have been held back by fear and distrust. Some of these internal refugees say they do not want to go home because they don't think they will be safe.
But before we get to 2012, it seems increasingly likely that there will be changes to the political elite, and not just because of the ICC. The international community, led by Barack Obama's administration, is not ready to let Kenya off the hook. The calls for reform are becoming more pointed, and indeed more aggressive. Kenyan officials were angered when the U.S. sent letters to 15 ministers and officials warning them that they were blocking reforms and because of this could face travel bans. Kenya's foreign minister summoned U.S. ambassador Michael Ranneberger for talks over the letters and the government spokesman in Nairobi, Alfred Mutua, was blunt in his condemnation, saying the U.S. should have addressed its criticism to the government rather than writing directly to individuals. "What they are doing is trying to instil fear so that people do not comment on anything that the US does not believe in. We think that is plainly wrong and is not an acceptable way of doing things," he told the Daily Nation. "It is like the government of Kenya writing letters to civil servants in the US government telling them that they will be held personally responsible for the failure of the pullout from Iraq. It is preposterous to the say the least."
The U.S. move may indeed have stoked some sympathy for the discredited coalition government because of a perception that Kenya's sovereignty has been infringed, but that effect is likely to be short-lived. It may depend on who gets banned. And though international pressure may be on, it's not clear that change at the top is the end-game. Afterall, Kenya is a key ally in a volatile region, a partner in dealing with the radical Islamists in Somalia and an economic powerhouse where foreign companies have lucrative investments.
One wonders what Kibaki is thinking (always something of a mystery). Today, he was dealt another blow -- possibly -- when the unpopular head of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission Aaron Ringera resigned saying his reappointment by the president had "raised a national storm." One wonders why Kibaki thought he would get away with ignoring parliament and the public to preserve Ringera's job. Especially since the latter has been widely criticised for failing to curb corruption in any significant way. (Ringera investigated such mega-scandals as Anglo-Leasing, and Goldenberg but failed to bring any big players to book.) There must be a story there. On the surface, Ringera's departure is a slap in the face to Kibaki, but maybe there is something more going on here. Now, everyone is waiting for Kibaki's reaction to the ICC statement.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga has just come back from meeting Obama in the States and said in an interview with the Nation that the U.S. president was genuinely concerned about the situation in Kenya but that "I sometimes think Obama’s roots in Kenya can actually be a problem. Kenya is always being held to different standards compared to neighbouring countries." Odinga went on to list the reforms that Kenya has carried out, including the fact that the country has a vibrant media and active civil society, and that corruption is now often "being nipped in the bud." I'm not sure the average Kenyan would agree. And I'm not sure making Mombasa port into a 24-hour facility and reducing the number of roadblocks on the road from Mombasa to the Ugandan border -- other examples he cited -- answer calls for root-and-branch reforms.
Procrastination does seem to be part and parcel of the work of the political elite here, but maybe time is really finally running out, at least in relation to justice for the hundreds killed last year.
Moreno-Ocampo has promised that "justice will not be delayed."
I wonder if Guinea's Moussa Dadis Camara is watching.

Thursday 24 September 2009

PLAYING HARDBALL

The United States is upping the ante on Kenyan officials, turning its anti-corruption rhetoric into action. Today, U.S. ambassador to Kenya Michael Ranneberger said his country had threatened 15 Kenyans -- including government ministers, parliamentary secretaries and members of parliament -- with travel bans if they did not support reforms, including judicial reforms and changes in the police. He did not name the individuals. More importantly perhaps, he also threatened Kenya's international funds.
"The U.S. is indicating it will more closely scrutinise any proposals for Kenya in international financial institutions," he said, without giving any more details.
"These steps reflect the view at the highest levels of the U.S. government that implementation of the comprehensive reform agenda ... must proceed with a much greater sense of urgency," Ranneberger said in Nairobi.
"Doing so is crucial to the future democratic stability of Kenya ... Despite all the rhetoric and commissions and talk and all that, not much has happened"
Or in plainer speech: "These steps follow an awful lot of private diplomacy ... It goes hand-in-hand with what we said: No business as usual ...The people we've sent letters to are not thugs, they're not criminals. They're people we have dealt with over the years, people who can play a role helping to transform this country," he said.
Interestingly, however, Ranneberger said there was no plan to cut U.S. aid for Kenya -- up to 3 billion dollars in aid, trade deals and tourism revenues, according to AFP. So I guess there is still room to tighten the screws a little further if this latest salvo goes unheeded.
Kenyan government spokesman Alfred Mutua said Kenya does not respond to activism diplomacy.
If you are interested in Somalia, this piece offers an interesting and intelligent take on why the international community is so ill-equipped to intervene in any meaningful way to lift the country out of its meltdown.

HAKUNA MAGI

As Kenyans wait with expectation and some trepidation for the forecast El Nino rains in October and November, the financial and human costs of a severe drought are mounting.
Yesterday, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta said the drought could threaten the country's 3 percent growth target for 2009/10 by curbing agricultural output and electricity generation. Kenyatta also said the central bank could do more to help the economy. The bank held its key lending rate steady at 7.75 percent on Wednesday, citing headline inflation worries. The bank has cut its key rate four times since December to stimulate growth and some analysts think that with core inflation below target, it is waiting now for those cuts to feed through. The bank's governor said drought and the global economic crisis would hit growth in the third quarter but that it could pick up in the fourth quarter, thanks to seasonal rains, higher tea and coffee prices and a stimulus package in this year's budget. Growth in Kenya fell to 1.8 percent last year -- hit partly by the post-election violence that claimed around 1,500 lives and displaced some 300,000 people -- from 7.1 percent in 2007.
The drought is already having a real, devastating impact on many people's lives. This article illustrates the effects on ordinary people in Nairobi's massive slums and on farmers and cattle rearers further north.
The World Food Program says 3.8 million Kenyans need emergency aid. But it says it may have to suspend operations in Kenya because of a budget shortfall. It is already providing food to around 2.5 million Kenyans. ".......the financial crisis and the still record high food prices around the world is delivering a devastating blow. Throw in a storm, a drought and a conflict and you have a recipe for disaster," said WFP executive director Josette Sheeran.
She warned that at the current funding levels, "we will – in October – have to cut our services throughout the world, including to half of those we are trying to reach in Kenya."
In the northeast, children are suffering because the cows that provide the milk they rely on for nutrition are dying. "Children are on the brink of death... The numbers of malnourished children coming to our feeding centres is going up and up and we expect it to get worse," Catherine Fitzgibbon, Save the Children’s deputy director in Kenya, said this week. "If we cannot get more food or cash to the region urgently to help families buy food, more children will die."
Since July, the number of severely malnourished children seeking treatment at Save The Children's northeastern emergency feeding centres has increased by 25 percent.
And desperation is causing more and deadlier conflicts. Last week, at least 29 people were killed during a cattle raid in the Laikipia district in central Kenya.
Everyone is waiting for the El Nino rains. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has warned of a "castastrophe" if they fail. But they could also aggravate problems in some areas -- and already have. The Standard reported yesterday that five people had died in floods in the western town of Kisumu. The United Nations is helping Kenya to prepare for the torrential rains that would alleviate the drought but could also cause flash floods, mudslides and deaths.

CHICKENS COMING HOME TO ROOST

Is Mutula Kilonzo speaking for the coalition government? Or is the justice minister going out on a limb when he says that there is no way Kenya is going to be able to try those suspected of fomenting and inciting the post-election violence? This week, Kilonzo said he would write and inform the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, that the Kenyan government could not meet a Sept. 30 deadline to set up a local mechanism to try the suspects. "The country must come to terms that calls for Hague is now real. We will not ask for more time for creation of local tribunal. We want to move forward, we have a lot of other work to do," he said.
Kilonzo has been out of tune with President Mwai Kibaki before. After Kibaki announced in late July that Kenya would try the suspects in local tribunals and use the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, Kilonzo said that the latter did was not equipped to try those alleged to have fanned and financed the violence, which killed around 1,500.
Whether Kilonzo is positioning himself for a post-Kibaki era or acting without ulterior motives, he has won some praise for urging the ICC to move in. He has reportedly also been receiving death threats, although it is not clear from whom or exactly why.
Moreno-Ocampo is in the United States this week to meet State Department officials and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. And the U.S. ambassador in Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, is expected to make a "major announcement" today on U.S. actions to push for reforms. He has previously said that the U.S., despite not being a signatory to the ICC, will support its action in Kenya and warned on Monday that the U.S intended to impose smart sanctions on Kenyan leaders.
These leaders already seem to be feeling the freeze. Prime Minister Raila Odinga was supposedly due to join a lunch meeting by African leaders with Obama this week, but was allegedly disinvited. An unnamed U.S. policymaker put the confusion down to "an embarrassing error by an overzealous official." Ranneberger said the cancellation was because of a techncial issue and was not related to Kenya's record in fighting corruption. But you do wonder if there is a reason that Obama seems unwilling to be seen with Odinga. Maybe today's "major announcement" from Ranneberger will clarify things?
Ocampo is reported to have said last week that he wants to make Kenya an example of the costs of impunity. Those Kenyans who believe their names to be on a list of suspects that he has received from a Kenyan investigating commission must be feeling nervous. Ocampo apparently wants to meet with Kibaki and Odinga soon. Perhaps that will be the next step on this somewhat slow road to justice.

Wednesday 9 September 2009

THE LONG ARM OF THE LAW

I feel I should be writing a requiem for Kenya's parliament.
It might not be flattering, but the debate over President Mwai Kibaki's decision to reappoint Justice Aaron Ringera as head of the country's anti-corruption commission (KACC) has really exposed the extent to which this elected body -- flawed though it may be -- has been sidelined and rendered essentially impotent. Many MPs believe Ringera's re-appointment to be illegal because Kibaki acted without consulting Parliament and the KACC advisory board, but it is unclear whether they will even be allowed to debate the issue on substance.
Ringera has been criticised by many Kenyans for failing to bring down those believed to
be behind the Anglo Leasing scandal, in which sham companies sought to siphon off billions of Kenyan shillings. Check out Michaela Wrong's book "It's Our Turn to Eat" for a fairly chilling account of Ringera's role in warning off then anti-graft czar John Githongo who was investigating Kenya's biggest financial scandal.
On Thursday, parliament speaker Kenneth Marende will rule on whether Parliament can discuss a report that has already declared the re-appointment of Ringera and two of his assistants illegal. In the preceding debate, it was clear MPs had a real sense of helplessness.
"We have been at the mercy of the Executive and that of the Judiciary for a very long time; unless this honourable House claims its space, this country has no future," said Mr Mutava Musyimi, the MP from Gachoka MP (PNU).
Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo told parliament that discussing the report would be illegal, since there is a court case pending against the re-appointment. Former Justice Minister Martha Karua pointed out that if this stood it meant that, faced with a difficult or embarrassing debate on any subject, the government could find a "crony or hireling" to launch a court case and essentially shut down parliament.
"By reappointing Ringera, Kibaki has basically shot himself in the foot, further weakening his government. It's like putting a red rag in front of a bull, with the bull being parliament and the public," said political commentator Robert Shaw.
I'm not sure that worries Kibaki though.
He must have known this decision would draw some flak, to say the least. But he did it anyway. It is either incredible chutzpah or a somewhat worrying nonchalance about public and international opinion.
Speaking of which, Kibaki's decision was criticised by the U.S. administration, and this drew a sharp rebuke from the government in Nairobi. Outspoken U.S. Ambassador Michael Ranneburger said the KACC had done a poor job under Ringera and faulted Kibaki for reappointing him. Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula retorted that the Kenyan Government "considers the statement objectionable, in bad taste and an affront to the Head of State to whom it is accredited in appointing Justice Ringera as Director of the KACC."
"The ministry further takes great exception to the tone of the Embassy’s statement which casts aspersions on the Government’s commitment to fight corruption and end impunity," he said in a two-page letter to the embassy.
Just a minor diplomatic spat, all words no action? Maybe, but the United States has been steadily chipping away at Kenya's coalition government, which it believes is failing to deliver on promised reforms. Having the world's superpower breathing down your neck cannot be comfortable for Kenyan authorities and the Obama administration shows no sign in letting up the pressure. Something to bear in mind as Kenya faces the potential prospect of embarrasing trials at the International Criminal Court over deadly post-election violence in 2007/8.
And then came a political twist. On Tuesday, Kenya's top cop -- police commissioner Major General Hussein Ali -- was removed from his duties to become Postmaster General. Ali had been under pressure since February when a report by U.N. rapporteur Philip Alston said he should be sacked because of abuses by his forces, particularly during the post-election violence. Kenya's police have long been accused of extra-judicial killings, torture and corruption -- all charges the force has denied. But nothing happened until now. It is the timing of Kibaki's decision to remove Ali that had most Kenyans talking, coming as it did in the middle of the intense public and political debate over the Ringera decision.
And some are unimpressed.
"I think the changes are another slap in the face. You do not reward a police commissioner whose force has been implicated in human-rights violations with a new appointment. You charge the person," Kenya Human Rights Commission Executive Director Wanyeki Muthoni said. "Reforms have to start with the possibility of accountability, internally and externally. Everything else, although necessary, will not change the culture of policing in this country, which is what we fundamentally want," she said.
Ali has been replaced by Mathew Kirai Iteere, the Israeli-trained former commandant of the police's paramilitary General Service Unit (GSU), a unit loyal to the presidency whose record is not exactly squeaky clean. The challenges facing Iteere are well laid out in this article from the Daily Nation. Not mentioned is the fact that the Kenyan police force was rated East Africa's most corrupt public institution in a recent survey by Transparency International.
For an alternative view of Ali's record, check out this article, which praises him for doing his best to reform an institution that can only become truly effective when other political, social and economic problems in Kenyan society are addressed.
Having an impotent, frustrated and flawed parliament is not going to help.
Go raibh maith agat, Daithi

Wednesday 2 September 2009

Water and Power

We're just back from a three-week odyssey around the remoter parts of Britain and Ireland. After our overnight flight from Nairobi, we stepped into the sunshine outside Heathrow's Terminal Five and marvelled at an amazing water feature made up of scores of spurting jets lit individually from underneath with glorious shades of pink, purple and gold. Our girls shrieked with delight as the jets rose and fell while we pondered the bizarre sight of water and electricity being used for art. It was like an out-of-body experience after weeks of rationing. We felt like running around with buckets.
Mind you, after three weeks, we agreed that there was water a-plenty in Europe's western reaches. After much thought, I decided the only word for the weather in Ireland was "atrocious".
Back home in Nairobi, our garden is parched and brown, emaciated cows are meandering along the busy roads, rhinos are being moved from Nakuru national park to Nairobi national park because of the drought, friends of friends say the elephants have left Amboseli, the zebra are falling down and hippos are keeling over in ankle-deep mud. The drought is biting everywhere it seems -- except in the west where land is green and lush and flooded.
The power rationing is worse than when we left. We have no power during the day on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. (The Kenyan Power and Lighting Company said today the power cuts would end in October . I wonder if electricity bills will go back to normal then -- somehow I don't think so. The irony is that bills are going up even during rationing because the KPLC is using costly emergency generators.) Landlords in the poorer areas of Nairobi are drilling boreholes and charging their tenants for the water, which apparently often tastes bad.
The very tangible consequences of the drought have sharpened a political debate over the Mau forest -- a vital water tower which has been illegally settled and deforested over decades. Politicians are debating how to evict those settled there and, as so often here, the debate may be more about political alliances and allegiances ahead of 2012 than the actual environmental problems caused by the destruction of the Mau.
Other sturdy perennials are also making the news. Today, parliament was voting on whether or not to go into recess -- many MPs first want to debate President Mwai Kibaki's decision to reappoint Aaron Ringera as head of the Kenyan Anti-Corruption Commission. Some have decried Kibaki's decision as illegal and unconstitutional -- although there is some debate about the exact technicalities of the relevant law. Ringera is widely seen to have been ineffective and, well, Kenya's track record on corruption speaks for itself.
The Kenyan branch of Transparency International and the African Centre for Open Governance (AFRICOG) accused Kibaki of breaking the law.
"By unilaterally purporting to reappoint Ringera, Mwai Kibaki has attempted to deal the independence of the commission and its advisory board the decisive death-blow," AFRICOG's Gladwell Otieno told reporters.
Some might say the KACC had long been written off in many Kenyan minds, given the failure of this administration to seriously tackle endemic corruption.