TRYING TO MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL

There's one question that keeps sneaking into conversations in Nairobi these days -- what's going to happen in the Aug. 4 referendum on the constitution? The polls and pundits see a win for the "Yes" team, and the figures, at first sight, look convincing.
The most recent voter survey by Strategic Research, released on July 16, said 62 percent of those questioned said they would vote "Yes". Twenty percent were in the "No" camp and 18 percent said they were undecided. That's a pretty impressive lead. And it's up considerably from the 49 percent said to be in favour of the constitution in a June poll by South Consulting, which works for Kofi Annan and others monitoring the 2008 power-sharing accord.  
The "No" team, which is led by Higher Education Minister William Ruto, has been sceptical of the polls, saying they are biased in favour of the "Yes" camp. Obviously, there are wide margins for error when conducting these surveys. (Do those polled in volatile regions tell the truth, for example? Wouldn't you be a little scared, given what has happened before, of going against the grain of local opinion?)
Macharia Gaitho, a columnist in the Daily Nation, had an interesting take on the figures this week.
"Something seems wrong with the numbers," he writes. "The "No" vote remains constant with all the pollsters, 17 percent from Synovate in April, 21 percent from Infotrak in May, 20 percent from Synovate in early June, 22 percent from South Consulting in late June and now 18 percent. But the "Yes" has swung like a yo-yo. Either Kenyan attitudes are oscillating wildly for no logical reason or some of  the pollsters are blatantly biased."
Gaitho calls on polling agencies and institutes to come together and review their work and their methodology to be sure that they are delivering information that the public can trust.
The winning margin on Aug. 4 could be decisive. If the "Yes" team wins, but with a narrow margin, then this will make dissent and possibly violence more likely. If the win is emphatic, there will be less room for disappointed leaders of the "No" camp to wind up their supporters into challenging the result. People worry about violence on election day -- that may be less of a risk than a slow simmering of discontent that could get a boost from a less-than-convincing win by the "Yes" camp (because they seem the likely leaders).
A report commissioned by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, says the victors must lead by a big margin.
"The margin of a Yes win will weaken the forces of resistance to reforms but (a slim margin -- my insert) may give the losing incentives to dig," said consultant Duncan Okello.
Some market analysts are already raising the red flag about the potential effects of a tight vote.
Isaac Njuguna, an investment analyst at Zimele, tells the Daily Nation that a "Yes" vote will favour businesses and investors, but the real effects of the vote will depend on how rival groups take the results.
"We are unlikely to see a lot of activities at the bourse, but after the vote is taken then we shall be in a position to judge. But as things stand now, if the proposed constitution goes through, then we shall see more activities," he says.
That the potential for violence is real is no longer in doubt. A grenade attack on a Church meeting that doubled as a "No" rally in Nairobi in June killed at least six people. As far as I know, no one has yet been charged with the attack. Last week, a pastor and another man were arrested in Nairobi with some kind of ammonium nitrate, a detonator and a safety fuse. They have denied charges of being in possession of explosive materials and are due back in court on Aug. 24. And on Monday night, police searched Ruto's offices after a bomb threat was made. They didn't find anything and Ruto was in Mombasa so it was probably a hoax, but it's a reminder of the passions on both sides.
The Kenyan National Commission on Human Rights and the Truth Commission have also raised concerns about voter intimidation. The two organisations said they had received reports that some communities in the volatile Rift Valley had been threatened with eviction if they vote for the new law (this, of course, reflects the crux of the issue: One of the main bugbears of those leading the "No" campaign is the new constitution's provisions on land. They say these are unfair, and will lead to people being forced to give up their land. The "Yes" team says those who oppose these articles do so because they have acquired land illegally and face having it seized.) The wananchi in some hotspots are already on the move,, upping sticks to get out of contentious zones ahead of the vote. If the people who witnessed first-hand what happened before are moving, then I think there is at least valid cause for concern.