Quiet before the storm?

As the countdown to the Aug. 4 referendum on the constitution continues, there has been some unsettling news from a monitoring team that reports on Kenya’s political progress to Kofi Annan, who helped to broker the 2008 power-sharing deal.

The report, produced by South Consulting for the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Monitoring Team,  is due to be released today, but the Standard newspaper says it has seen a draft. 

First of all, the poll shows support for the “Yes” camp  falling to 49 percent, with 22 percent saying they will vote “No” and 22 percent undecided. This seems to confirm a slight decline of support since April, with the strongest opposition coming from the Rift Valley, according to the data in the Standard.

The report’s authors are worried that even if the “Yes” campaign does win the referendum, the margin could be so small that it would call into question the legitimacy of the poll. 

"It is significant that this decline in the number of those supporting the Proposed Constitution has not led to a significant increase in the number of people rejecting it. A point to note, nonetheless, is that the political legitimacy of the new constitution would require a high approval rating, beyond the legal benchmark of 50 percent plus one," the new report says, according to the Standard.

The report says the “Yes” camp is still likely to win, but wonders if the new draft will have enough support to guarantee stability and unity. In other words, what will the losers do? Will they accept the will of the majority (and again, this is where the winning margin may be crucial) or will the result be challenged in a way that brings to the fore the old political, ethnic and, possibly now, even religious rivalries.

One of the features of the pre-referendum debate has been the way it has focused attention on divisions between Kenyan Muslim and Christian communities. Many Christian churches are basing their opposition to the draft on articles on abortion and the kadhis courts, that rule on matters like divorce, marriage and inheritance for Kenya’s Muslim community. No matter that kadhis courts already existed under the old constitution or that abortion is only allowed when a mother’s life is in danger. This is not the narrative being spun by some opponents of the draft, who portray the new constitution as a grave threat to the integrity and indeed identity of the Kenyan state.(this story looks at these tensions).

There is also the danger that the referendum could widen splits in the fragile coalition despite the fact that one-time rivals President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga are both campaigning for a “Yes” vote.
Some have said there may be a danger that dissatisfaction with the referendum result could lead to the collapse of the coalition, although other analysts say that is unlikely because the government can only be dissolved if Kibaki or Odinga pull out.

The monitoring team's report says that one reason for the indecision among voters is the failure of senior politicians to commit to the “Yes” camp, symbolized by the colour green. Politicians who say they are in favour of the draft but are secretly pushing for a “No”, symbolized by the colour red, are now known as watermelons – green on the outside and red on the inside.

One of the most tireless campaigners for the “Yes” camp has been Odinga, but he had an operation last week to relieve pressure on his brain caused by internal bleeding. He is at home now, but doctors are only allowing him light duties for the next, crucial, two weeks. 

The monitoring team’s report urges the political leadership to become more aggressive in campaigning for the passage of the draft constitution.

"The journey to a new Constitution in Kenya has been a long and tortuous one, often frustrated by individual and ethno-political interests. The President, PM and Vice President must step up joint campaigns and reach out to everyone and everywhere," it says.

But is Odinga up to this? He is the most visible member of the “Yes” campaign with the frail Kibaki taking a very secondary role. And also, what does Odinga’s operation and health worries mean for the 2012 election? Maybe nothing. But it might be something to keep an eye on.

And finally, check out Kuweni Serious’ Soma Hiyo Something, a series of very funny and very smart cartoons meant to encourage people to read the constitution before that Aug. 4 vote.