MAKING KENYA AN EXAMPLE

It's been a bad couple of weeks for Kenya's governing elite. Scorned by an angry public over the president's reappointment of an unpopular anti-graft commissioner, berated by the United States for promised but paralysed reforms, threatened with travel bans, and now in the sights of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Today, the prosecutor of the ICC, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, reiterated his determination to pursue those deemed most responsible for fanning and financing last year's post-election violence.
Moreno-Ocampo said: "Kenya will be a world example on managing violence". He plans a three-pronged approach: he wants the ICC to try those suspected of bearing the most responsibility for the violence; he wants a local tribunal to try others and wants the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission to look at past examples of impunity. As a first step, the prosecutor plans to meet with President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the coming weeks. He already has a list of prime suspects, believed to include some cabinet ministers.
"There is no question, there is no doubt, that the next stage is the indictment of the suspects. Moreno-Ocampo has now finally set the record straight," Gitobu Imanyara, a Kenyan parliamentarian who is sponsoring a second bill to establish a local court, told Reuters.
Some argue that if those who organised and funded the violence are tried internationally, this could mean that elections due in 2012 could be more peaceful: political leaders used to playing the ethnic card to encourage followers to intimidate or beat up opponents may think twice if others have been prosecuted. But indictments could also split, and possibly destroy, the fractious coalition. And any prosecutions could increase tensions between the different ethnicities here, and that could make for dangerous polls. Although there is some evidence that economics may be playing a larger role in political preferences as financial hardship bites especially among the urban poor, I am not sure economics will trump ethnic affiliations at the ballot box just yet. A worrying sign might be the fact that efforts to resettle those still living in camps after being driven from their homes during the violence more than a year ago have been held back by fear and distrust. Some of these internal refugees say they do not want to go home because they don't think they will be safe.
But before we get to 2012, it seems increasingly likely that there will be changes to the political elite, and not just because of the ICC. The international community, led by Barack Obama's administration, is not ready to let Kenya off the hook. The calls for reform are becoming more pointed, and indeed more aggressive. Kenyan officials were angered when the U.S. sent letters to 15 ministers and officials warning them that they were blocking reforms and because of this could face travel bans. Kenya's foreign minister summoned U.S. ambassador Michael Ranneberger for talks over the letters and the government spokesman in Nairobi, Alfred Mutua, was blunt in his condemnation, saying the U.S. should have addressed its criticism to the government rather than writing directly to individuals. "What they are doing is trying to instil fear so that people do not comment on anything that the US does not believe in. We think that is plainly wrong and is not an acceptable way of doing things," he told the Daily Nation. "It is like the government of Kenya writing letters to civil servants in the US government telling them that they will be held personally responsible for the failure of the pullout from Iraq. It is preposterous to the say the least."
The U.S. move may indeed have stoked some sympathy for the discredited coalition government because of a perception that Kenya's sovereignty has been infringed, but that effect is likely to be short-lived. It may depend on who gets banned. And though international pressure may be on, it's not clear that change at the top is the end-game. Afterall, Kenya is a key ally in a volatile region, a partner in dealing with the radical Islamists in Somalia and an economic powerhouse where foreign companies have lucrative investments.
One wonders what Kibaki is thinking (always something of a mystery). Today, he was dealt another blow -- possibly -- when the unpopular head of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission Aaron Ringera resigned saying his reappointment by the president had "raised a national storm." One wonders why Kibaki thought he would get away with ignoring parliament and the public to preserve Ringera's job. Especially since the latter has been widely criticised for failing to curb corruption in any significant way. (Ringera investigated such mega-scandals as Anglo-Leasing, and Goldenberg but failed to bring any big players to book.) There must be a story there. On the surface, Ringera's departure is a slap in the face to Kibaki, but maybe there is something more going on here. Now, everyone is waiting for Kibaki's reaction to the ICC statement.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga has just come back from meeting Obama in the States and said in an interview with the Nation that the U.S. president was genuinely concerned about the situation in Kenya but that "I sometimes think Obama’s roots in Kenya can actually be a problem. Kenya is always being held to different standards compared to neighbouring countries." Odinga went on to list the reforms that Kenya has carried out, including the fact that the country has a vibrant media and active civil society, and that corruption is now often "being nipped in the bud." I'm not sure the average Kenyan would agree. And I'm not sure making Mombasa port into a 24-hour facility and reducing the number of roadblocks on the road from Mombasa to the Ugandan border -- other examples he cited -- answer calls for root-and-branch reforms.
Procrastination does seem to be part and parcel of the work of the political elite here, but maybe time is really finally running out, at least in relation to justice for the hundreds killed last year.
Moreno-Ocampo has promised that "justice will not be delayed."
I wonder if Guinea's Moussa Dadis Camara is watching.