HAKUNA MAGI

As Kenyans wait with expectation and some trepidation for the forecast El Nino rains in October and November, the financial and human costs of a severe drought are mounting.
Yesterday, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta said the drought could threaten the country's 3 percent growth target for 2009/10 by curbing agricultural output and electricity generation. Kenyatta also said the central bank could do more to help the economy. The bank held its key lending rate steady at 7.75 percent on Wednesday, citing headline inflation worries. The bank has cut its key rate four times since December to stimulate growth and some analysts think that with core inflation below target, it is waiting now for those cuts to feed through. The bank's governor said drought and the global economic crisis would hit growth in the third quarter but that it could pick up in the fourth quarter, thanks to seasonal rains, higher tea and coffee prices and a stimulus package in this year's budget. Growth in Kenya fell to 1.8 percent last year -- hit partly by the post-election violence that claimed around 1,500 lives and displaced some 300,000 people -- from 7.1 percent in 2007.
The drought is already having a real, devastating impact on many people's lives. This article illustrates the effects on ordinary people in Nairobi's massive slums and on farmers and cattle rearers further north.
The World Food Program says 3.8 million Kenyans need emergency aid. But it says it may have to suspend operations in Kenya because of a budget shortfall. It is already providing food to around 2.5 million Kenyans. ".......the financial crisis and the still record high food prices around the world is delivering a devastating blow. Throw in a storm, a drought and a conflict and you have a recipe for disaster," said WFP executive director Josette Sheeran.
She warned that at the current funding levels, "we will – in October – have to cut our services throughout the world, including to half of those we are trying to reach in Kenya."
In the northeast, children are suffering because the cows that provide the milk they rely on for nutrition are dying. "Children are on the brink of death... The numbers of malnourished children coming to our feeding centres is going up and up and we expect it to get worse," Catherine Fitzgibbon, Save the Children’s deputy director in Kenya, said this week. "If we cannot get more food or cash to the region urgently to help families buy food, more children will die."
Since July, the number of severely malnourished children seeking treatment at Save The Children's northeastern emergency feeding centres has increased by 25 percent.
And desperation is causing more and deadlier conflicts. Last week, at least 29 people were killed during a cattle raid in the Laikipia district in central Kenya.
Everyone is waiting for the El Nino rains. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has warned of a "castastrophe" if they fail. But they could also aggravate problems in some areas -- and already have. The Standard reported yesterday that five people had died in floods in the western town of Kisumu. The United Nations is helping Kenya to prepare for the torrential rains that would alleviate the drought but could also cause flash floods, mudslides and deaths.