This Time I Mean It

Kofi Annan has set another deadline for Kenya's politicians. This time, the former U.N. Secretary-General, who brokered a political deal between President Mwai Kibaki's PNU and Prime Minister Raila Odinga's ODM after the 2007 elections, has said he will hand over a list of those suspected of fomenting post-election violence to the International Criminal Court if Kenya does not set up a local tribunal before the end of August. This is Annan's second deadline. The first was in March. The list of 10 top suspects is believed to include politicians and businessmen, and clearly shining any light on this bloody, murky period will be a risky business.
Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo says Kenya is not ready to set up a local tribunal. He says the country is still too polarized. The funerals last month of those burnt alive in a church during the post-election crisis showed just how fresh the wounds are, and how far we are from real reconciliation. I'm pretty cynical about politicians generally but the fact that Raila's ODM and the Kalenjin community did not attend this most symbolic of funerals shocked me, and made me wonder what is needed to bring the different groups together and rebuild trust. Maybe a local tribunal would help -- like the gacacas in Rwanda -- but a tribunal without trust would only inflame mutual suspicions. There have been few signs from members of the bickering government that they are selfless enough to set up the kind of tribunal that might really investigate who funded the violence, who incited it and who carried it out. Also it is hard to see how a genuine search for justice can take place when most Kenyan politicians are already in campaigning mode for 2012 and, according to their own members, preparing warchests.
It's a strange time in Nairobi. There is heightened security because of threats from radical Islamists in Somalia -- it's hard to judge just how serious the risks are but Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula has assured embassies that the diplomatic police are on high alert. That is not really encouraging. Then, there are rising fears about crime. It's always hard to gauge how much of this is hyperbole, but kidnappings for ransom certainly seem to be on the rise, and some friends say nobody wants to live in stand-alone houses anymore for fears of break-ins. The Mungiki sect and vigilantes are waging a brutal, unforgiving, uncensored war in the Rift Valley, according to today's Daily Nation. And in Nairobi, millions are living lives so devoid of hope that violence, for anybody or any reason, could easily, one imagines, seem less crushing than suffering in silence. For a really damning report on what life is like away from the muzak-filled shopping malls and latte-serving coffee shops that I and many expats frequent, check out this story: "Exploited by landlords, threatened by police, extorted by gangs, the slums in Nairobi are a human rights black hole where residents are deprived of basic services, denied security and excluded from having a say on their future," Amnesty International Secretary-General Irene Khan told reporters.
It all adds up to a very unstable environment. Throw in a row over prosecuting those responsible for the post-election violence and the potential naming of powerful names, and things could get even more volatile.