KENYA DELTA BLOW

The decision by Delta Air Lines to cancel its inaugural flight from Atlanta to Nairobi last week was an intriguing event. I can understand that Delta might be worried about flying into Jomo Kenyatta International Airport -- officials insist they have met all the security requirements to allow direct flights but the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) failed to clear the route at the last moment because of "noted security vulnerabilities in and around Nairobi." (One of the most striking things about living in Nairobi is the softness of potential terrorist targets around the city -- and this at a time when Kenya has been condemned by hardline Islamist militants fighting in Somalia for its role in supporting their enemies there.)
What I did not understand about the Delta affair was the max-impact timing of the announcement -- the day before the inaugural flight was due to land.
It's intriguing because there are so many possible reasons for the headline-grabbing move. Perhaps the truth is stranded somewhere between the press releases, angry comments and off-the-record briefings from all sides.
Some Kenyan officials were furious. Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula summoned outspoken U.S. ambassador Michael Ranneberger to his office to demand an explanation. Wetangula made the not unreasonable point that "great friends like Kenya and America" do not have to communicate through website postings" -- unless, I suppose, one of the great friends is trying to make a very deliberate point about how it views the other. The United States has been pretty outspoken about what it perceives as the failings of the Kenyan government and maybe the timing of the Delta decision was a deliberate or at least serendipitous slap on the wrist.
Ranneberger said the decision to cancel the flight was taken at the last minute and had nothing to do with the situation in neighbouring Somalia where hundreds of foreign fighters have joined Islamist insurgents fighting against President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's Western-backed government. Even if the threat was Somalia-linked -- and insurgents have threatened Kenya before now -- this risk is not new. So one wonders why the Delta decision had to be so last-minute.
Was it a deliberately provocative message to the Kenyan government from the Obama administration that unless you shape up, we are going to play diplomatic hardball? Was there a real, in-the-moment threat to the flight and if so, from whom and how viable was it? And indeed what is being done to track down the people responsible for that threat?
Or perhaps beyond politics, economics played a role. This story points out that Delta plans to cut international capacity beginning in September. So maybe the Nairobi route is no longer a priority? It's a tough time for airlines globally and the decision to halt the Nairobi flight did not pertain to Delta alone, but perhaps economics was at least part of the overall picture.
Some Kenyan officials say they expect the Atlanta-Nairobi flights to begin shortly.