Red or Green? And what does it mean?

There is just over a month to go until Kenyans vote on a new constitution. Things have gone relatively quiet since six people were killed in grenade blasts at a rally organized by church groups, who oppose the draft, in Uhuru Park on June 13. The church groups blamed the government for the attacks, and the coalition denied this, saying the perpetrators would be tracked down. So far, they haven’t been.
Most people expect the draft to be approved but from Nairobi it’s hard to get a handle on levels of support in other parts of the country . A Synovate poll published in early June said 57 percent of Kenyans supported the draft -- a drop from 64 percent in an April poll. The Standard this week broke down the regional voting tendencies, saying the Rift Valley Province is firmly in the No camp.
I was in Uhuru Park for the launch of the civic education campaign a few weeks before the explosions happened. The words of Nzamba Kitonga, chairman of the Committee of Experts that drew up the draft, seem prescient, in restropect.
“The constitutional review process attracts enemies … and they will do whatever is in their means to persuade Kenyans to undermine this process,” he told the crowd before waving off three trucks taking volunteers around the country to explain the constitution to the wananchi.
The Proposed Constitution is meant to help shield east Africa’s biggest economy from a repeat of the 2008 post-election violence that killed 1,300 people and forced around 300,000 to flee their homes.
Unlike in 2005, when a draft constitution was rejected in a bitter, divisive vote, this time the country’s top politicians are on the same side: President Mwai Kibaki and his one-time rival Prime Minister Raila Odinga, are both pushing for a “Yes” vote. But some powerful politicians are pushing for a “No”, including Minister of Higher Education William Ruto, a Kalenjin who has fallen out with his one-time mentor Odinga and is expected to run for president in 2012, although he would need to widen his narrow tribal base to stand any chance of winning.
Already, the debate has shown that the intertwined political, economic and ethnic tensions that exploded in 2008 are still bubbling dangerously. Anecdotal evidence suggests some people in the tinderbox Rift and Central Valleys are already re-arming.
The new constitution will curtail the president’s powers, devolve power to the regions and reinforce civil liberties – essentially diffusing power so that the presidency is no longer the sole prize in a country where people have long voted on ethnic lines and where winning the top job has been seen as the only way to ensure a tribe’s advancement.
The draft will also create a strong Senate with the power to sack the head of state, while the president’s nominations for a series of key posts will be subject to lawmakers’ approval.

Mark Schroeder, director of sub-Saharan Africa Analysis at STRATFOR says the aim is “to come to a point where power and the pursuit of power is not a zero-sum game but can be shared with the aim of preventing the violence that happened last time.”
Christian churches oppose the draft because it allows abortion if a woman’s life is in danger and refers to Muslim Kadhis’ courts, which already operate here. Others fear articles that refer to capping minimum and maximum land holdings – although the Committee of Experts says these limits will be defined by parliament later.
Local media say some members of Kibaki’s PNU party are publicly advocating a “Yes” vote, but secretly working for a “No”, fearful that approval of the draft will benefit Odinga and his ODM party.
“It’s a game of smoke and mirrors … You’ve got people who are appearing as if they are in the ‘Yes’ camp who, frankly, one knows are not,” said Aly-Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst in Nairobi. “The prime minister has been very astute and … he has hijacked the ‘Yes’ vote and that’s making people who would cross over more reluctant to cross over.”
For now, markets are assuming a win for the green “Yes” camp and are not pricing in any extra risk. Given generally positive sentiment on Kenya, they are expected to remain stoic until any real signs of trouble, but violence could trigger a swift retrenchment and the political risk premium will almost certainly increase next year.
Investors are also keenly watching efforts to bring some high-profile Kenyans to trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for fomenting and financing the 2008 violence – a process likely to play out over the next year.
In May, ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said he would target up to six individuals -- believed by many to include members of the coalition government – and planned to issue arrest warrants by the end of the year.
Moreno-Ocampo says it is not his job to worry about political fallout but analysts say he cannot ignore political realities when deciding who to prosecute. How those targeted react -- whether they decide to go peacefully or whip up their tribal bases -- will be critical in determining the future political landscape.
“I don’t think (Moreno-Ocampo) can act unilaterally. He might think he is independent of some Kenyan politicians in Nairobi but there are a lot more forces at work,” said STRATFOR’s Schroeder.
Betty Maina, chief executive of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, says the ICC process is the most destabilizing factor for Kenya, and could play badly in the run-up to 2012.
“Anyone who is trying to do anything that targets political actors in the year before an election can only be accused of … sabotaging their chances. I think his timing is terrible,” she said.
One international diplomat, who declined to be named because of local sensitivities, said progress on constitutional and electoral reforms was positive but that “you don’t need a lot to see everything being derailed.”
If it is approved, the constitution will shake up politics – and its evil twin patronage.

Drafting a new constitution was a key element of the 2008 power-sharing deal between Kibaki and Odinga. Other reforms, notably to the judiciary and police, were also promised but the coalition has been paralyzed by inter-party squabbling.
Apart from changes to the executive, the draft tackles land issues, the bedrock of political and ethnic tensions that have flared sporadically since Kenya won independence from Britain in 1963. It says non-citizens will no longer be able to hold land freehold, but instead will be given leasehold tenure not exceeding 99 years, but renewable. It also says parliament shall enact legislation to prescribe minimum and maximum land holdings.
But some analysts warn the draft is not a panacea for a country with more than 40 percent unemployment, including millions of young people living desperate lives in ever expanding slums.
“The way this problem is seen is from a very political angle without looking at the economic issues that are really underlying these things. Income disparity has increased tremendously ... and if these issues are not addressed, conflict will be likely,” said Professor Joseph Kieyah, a senior policy analyst at the Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA).