If Kenya's political scene was set to music, the composition might go something like this:
First a strong bass line, which rumbles under everything: Last Thursday, Luis Moreno-Ocampo asked judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to approve a formal investigation into post-election murders, rapes and deportations in Kenya. It is now up to the judges in the Hague to decide. Chief Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo said he would visit Kenya early next year to talk to victims, and that if the court allows the investigation, inquiries could start immediately. The charges and lists of suspects could be defined in 2010.
Moreno-Ocampo also said he was concerned about reported threats to human rights activists and MPs who support the search for justice, including alleged threats and intimidation by Kenyan police officers.
Now, for the Sopranos, a high-pitched medley that is reaching a crescendo:
Last Wednesday, Agriculture Minister William Ruto organised a harambee, or fundraiser, for illegal squatters evicted from the Mau forest as part of a government plan to protect this important water catchment area. Ruto won the support of 10 Cabinet ministers and 50 MPs, as well as President Mwai Kibaki's son, Jimmy. But the public event really seemed to be an opportunity for Ruto and his allies to indulge in some fairly feisty bashing of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, whom they blame for evicting people from the Mau without offering them alternative homes and compensation. Of course, Raila is also a potential rival for the presidency in 2012. Also present at the harambee was Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, while Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka sent his apologies and a donation for a fund set up for those evicted from the Mau.
Ruto, Kenyatta and Musyoka represent the so-called three Ks -- the Kalenjins, Kikuyus and Kambas, and many believe their stance on the Mau is the first step in forming an alliance to contest the 2012 vote. Not quite in the spirit of taking tribalism out of politics.
Now, some MPs are threatening to introduce a vote of no-confidence in Raila. But the prime minister has hit back, saying at the weekend: "Those people making noise that Raila has abandoned the people who voted for him in the last elections in Rift Valley are least qualified to say so. They are thinking those people are more of theirs than they are Raila Odinga’s. They voted for me but not for those people talking the loudest. I value them so much but we must first protect the forest." Yesterday, Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo said the threatened vote of no confidence was petty politics. He warned that it could frustrate reforms in the country. You have to wonder how much reforming is really going on when so much time is taken up in forging alliances and dissing opponents. Watch this video to get an idea of how the alliances are shaping up in the wake of the Mau controversy.
Back to the music, and woven between the bass and sopranos are two separate melodies, secondary but insistent.
One comes from northern Kenya, and it is the unsettling sound of far-off fighting and death. In this article, the writer talks about increasingly deadly clashes over water and land between cattle owners in the parched north. You can see the really gruesome effects of such battles here but it is not easy viewing. In the article, Edmund Sanders says the United Nations estimates there have been 400 deaths in northern Kenya from fights over water and pasture this year.
And the final underlying melody comes from Somalia where the hardline insurgents of Al Shabaab seized the town of Dhobley, near the border with Kenya last Saturday after rival insurgents from Hizbul Islam fled.
In the past, Al Shabaab have threatened to invade Kenya unless it reduced troop numbers along the border. There have also been allegations that Kenya is training ethnic Somalis to fight for Somalia's transitional government, allegations the Kenyan military have denied. It's a worry for Kenya -- although threats of a full-on invasion may be far-fetched.
Kenya's political music is likely to get louder and more confused in the coming weeks as the new alliances and tensions play out. Raila has warned of a reshuffle. Maybe that is the next big movement.
